963
AXPZ20 KNHC 231530
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 113W FROM 04N TO
18N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W
AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 08N82W TO
12N113W TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N120W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N AND E OF 94W, AND FROM 05N TO 13N AND W OF
97W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE,
TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AS TROUGHING RESIDES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH SAT, WITH PULSING WINDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE
OF MUCH OF THE PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NIGHTLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO SAT BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY FO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS MAY EXTEND BEYOND
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, IMPACTING AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS. MODERATE NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ. FRESH NE WINDS OCCURRING AROUND 10N, WEST OF 125W, ARE
GENERATING ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE OCCURRING WELL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND
125W. FARTHER SOUTH, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY TRADE
WINDS SURROUNDING 10N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING WELL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS SLATED TO WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A LONG-PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF 05N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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