910
AXPZ20 KNHC 240247
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 117W FROM 04N TO
17N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W
AND 119W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 08N79W AND
CONTINUES TO 13N115W AND TO 10N122W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N122W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W AND
FROM 05N TO 12N AND W OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE,
TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT NEAR
CABO SAN LUCAS AS TROUGHING RESIDES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE OFFSHORE
OF MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN
NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO SAT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COLOMBIA, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY FO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS MAY EXTEND
BEYOND THE PAPAGAYO REGION. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS. MAINLY
MODERATE NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ. FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND 10N, WEST
OF 125W, GENERATING ROUGH SEAS. FARTHER SOUTH, A LONG-PERIOD SW
SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY TRADE
WINDS SURROUNDING 10N WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS SLATED TO WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A
LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF 05N INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KONARIK
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