307
AXPZ20 KNHC 240743
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 118W FROM 04N TO
17N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 08N79W AND
CONTINUES TO 13N115W AND TO 10N122W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N122W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W AND FROM 05N TO 12N
AND W OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AS TROUGHING RESIDES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
OFFSHORE OF MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TODAY. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FOR FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH.
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ. FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND 10N, WEST
OF 125W. FARTHER SOUTH, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS PRODUCING
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF 05N
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KONARIK
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