932
AXPZ20 KNHC 250145
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 09N80W AND
CONTINUES TO 09N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 13N E OF 111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO, EXCEPT NEAR CABO
SAN LUCAS AND PUNTA EUGENIA WHERE LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE
PRESENT. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE OFFSHORE OF MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
EXTENDING W TO 88W. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF IT. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUES
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COLOMBIA, WITH ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND S OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED E OF 100W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY A LONG- PERIOD SW SWELL WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF 05N THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
KONARIK
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