364
AXPZ20 KNHC 250757
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N124W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
108W AND 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND
LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO, EXCEPT NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA
WHERE LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE PRESENT. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE OFFSHORE OF MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS WEEK SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING W TO 88W. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF IT. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COLOMBIA, WITH ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND S OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED E OF 100W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY A LONG- PERIOD SW SWELL WILL DECAY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK,
BUT NEW SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
KONARIK
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