271
AXPZ20 KNHC 251538
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N100W TO 08N119W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 14N
E OF 105W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND
LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO, EXCEPT NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA
WHERE LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE PRESENT, AND IN THE VICINITY OF
CABO SAN LUCAS WHERE FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED. MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE SEEN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE OFFSHORE OF MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING W TO 90W. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF IT. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COLOMBIA, WITH ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND S OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED E OF 100W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BASED ON
ALTIMETER DATA. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL DECAY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK,
BUT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
GR
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