907
AXPZ20 KNHC 252120
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 10N75W OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 09N100W TO 07N120W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 13N
BETWEEN 78W AND 105W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF PANAMA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N138W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
MODERATE NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WITH
MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING W TO 88W BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF
IT. HIGHER WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, WITH
ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND S OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
MON. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF
IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS, LEADING TO ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED E OF 100W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BASED ON
ALTIMETER DATA. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL DECAY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK,
BUT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
GR
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