257
AXPZ20 KNHC 260723
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 09N99W TO 07N120W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 14N E OF 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N135W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS, REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NEAR THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS
AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG ENE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION. OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. HIGHER WINDS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TODAY. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED E OF 100W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES
DEVELOPING W OF 135W JUST N OF THE ITCZ. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 08N BETWEEN 90W
AND 110W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL DECAY TODAY, BUT A NEW SET OF
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE STARTING WED NIGHT.
KONARIK
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