003
AXPZ20 KNHC 261557
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 08N118W.
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 08N E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 05N TO 16N
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W, AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N138W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NEAR THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF TODAY. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION. OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. HIGHER WINDS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED E OF 100W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES
DEVELOPING W OF 135W JUST N OF THE ITCZ. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W
AND 110W BASED SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECAY TODAY,
BUT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE STARTING WED
NIGHT.
GR
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