802
AXPZ20 KNHC 262114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION NEAR A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND
ALSO WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 08N85W TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N99.5W TO 08N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N99.5W, SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 07N E OF
90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND
105W, AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N136W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE OBSERVED NEAR
THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK
WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE SEEN N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE S OF IT. HIGHER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, WITH
SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR N AS 05N BASED ON ALTIMETER
DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT, AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 34N136W,
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W
OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST E OF 100W RELATED TO THE
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO
NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT
12N AND W OF 130. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG- PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BASED SEVERAL
ALTIMETER PASSES. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW
SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED, WITH
SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN
100W AND 122W BY LATE FRI.
GR
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