902
AXPZ20 KNHC 270234
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS
1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED AROUND 11N100W AND CURRENTLY PRODUCING
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
95W AND 100W. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY
ONGOING IN AND NEAR THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 08N85W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N100W TO 08N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N100W, SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 07N E OF
90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W
AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS LIKELY TO FORM INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N136W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH ENE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE. HIGHER WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 34N136W,
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W
OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST E OF 100W RELATED TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. GENTLE TO MODERATE N
TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT
12N AND W OF 130. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG- PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W INTO LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO
9 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W
FRI.
KONARIK
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