101
AXPZ20 KNHC 270736
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS 1009 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N100W AND IS PRODUCING A ZONE OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND
102W. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ONGOING IN
AND NEAR THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. WHILE RECENT SATELLITE-
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM OAXACA TO JALISCO THROUGH LATE WEEK.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N078W TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N100W TO 08N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 08N122W TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N100W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 90W
AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS LIKELY TO FORM INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N136W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS, REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS LIKELY TO FORM INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
33N136W, DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST E OF 100W
RELATED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES N OF
THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 12N AND W OF 130. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG- PERIOD
SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS S OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND
120W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO
9 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W
BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page