907
AXPZ20 KNHC 271532
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W
AND 104W. WHILE THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LACKS A WELL- DEFINED
CIRCULATION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO
PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM OAXACA TO JALISCO THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 12N101W TO 08N123W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
08N123W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 12N101W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF 04N BETWEEN 78W AND
83W, FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W AND FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 117W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N132W. ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
34N132W, DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST E OF 100W
RELATED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. GENTLE
TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES N OF
THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 16N AND W OF 124. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO
9 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W
BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
GR
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