244
AXPZ20 KNHC 272110
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W
AND 105W. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM
TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM OAXACA TO
JALISCO THROUGH LATE WEEK. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV, AND THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 13N101.5W TO 11N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
11N115W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 13N101.5W, SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W, FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N132W,
EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY
DOMINATE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES
AND LOS CABOS, AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE REMAINDER OF MEXICO.
OVER THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN, MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 87W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 88W TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S
OF IT THROUGH FRI. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY FRI INTO SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST E
OF 100W RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES N
OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 13N AND W OF 120. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED, BUILDING SEAS TO
8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W
BY LATE FRI.
GR
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