235
AXPZ20 KNHC 280203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS
1008 MB LOW, EP90, IS CENTERED NEAR 13N103W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND
105W. WHILE THE SYSTEM SILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM
TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV, AND THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 13N103W TO 11N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
11N115W TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 13N103W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND
131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION A
GALE WARNING THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N132W,
EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, REACHING THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS
CABOS, AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE REMAINDER OF MEXICO. OVER
THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 87W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO
E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING
TO THE S OF IT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI INTO
SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION A
GALE WARNING THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 105W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST
E OF 105W RELATED TO POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WED, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W FRI. LOOKING AHEAD,
THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NW THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NW WATERS.
KONARIK
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