494
AXPZ20 KNHC 281546
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING: SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO (EP90):
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SEEN IN A BAND-LIKE TO THE N OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV, AND THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 07N85W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 12N104 TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 07N132W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 12N104W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 96W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION A
GALE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
30N134W, EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS,
REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
CABO CORRIENTES. OVER THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS FROM OAXACA TO
MICHOACAN, FRESH WINDS ARE INCREASING, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORMING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT INTO FRI NIGHT.
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS LATE FRI INTO SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION A
GALE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB LOCATED NEAR 30N134W DOMINATES MOST OF
THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W WHILE LOWER
PRESSURES PERSIST TO THE EAST RELATED TO POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TODAY, BUILDING SEAS TO 8
TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W
ON FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY STRENGTHEN AND
SHIFT NW THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE NW WATERS.
GR
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