190
WTPZ41 KNHC 282033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
300 PM CST WED MAY 28 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SOME BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM NOW
HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THUS, THE SYSTEM IS NOW
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE FIRST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A
T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS NORTHWEST AT 320/8 KT, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS MOTION GIVEN THE RECENT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER FORMATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND SHEAR. AFTER
48 H THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ENTER A FAIRLY HARSH ENVIRONMENT WITH
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING
WIND SHEAR WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE LATEST MODEL
SIMULATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
COLLAPSE BY SATURDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 11.9N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY/MORA
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