182
AXPZ20 KNHC 282151
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
AT 28/2100 UTC, THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO (EP90) WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E,
THE FIRST OF THE 2025 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 104.7W AT
28/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH- NORTHWEST MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W
AND 108W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SEEN IN A BAND-LIKE TO
THE N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, THEN NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ONE-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 08N90W TO T.D. ONE-E TO 09N126W.
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N126W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. ONE-E, SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
108W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF CABO SAN
LUCAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IS CURRENTLY NOTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. THIS AREA
OF WINDS AND SEAS IS TO THE N OF T.D. ONE-E.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND
TO BEYOND 90W BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT INTO FRI NIGHT.
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB LOCATED NEAR 30N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF
110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST TO THE EAST RELATED NOW TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND
ZONE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EQUATOR. BUILDING SEAS
TO 8 TO 9 FT ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W ON FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW AND
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, MOVING EASTWARD N OF THE REGION,
WILL BRING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS, PARTICULARLY
N OF 25N AND W OF 125W THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GR
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