337
WTPZ41 KNHC 290237
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
900 PM CST WED MAY 28 2025
THE SPRAWLING DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN A MODEST INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES, BUT MOST OF THE FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN FARTHER
AWAY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WITH LITTLE OVERALL STRUCTURAL
CHANGE, THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INTENSITY AT 30 KT. OVERNIGHT ASCAT WIND DATA SHOULD PROVIDE MORE
INSIGHT INTO THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD STRUCTURE.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD (335/8 KT), BUT
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA INDUCES
A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE, ROUGHLY
IN BETWEEN THE LATEST SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITHIN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
WARM WATERS. THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE BROAD CYCLONE CAN DEVELOP A TIGHTER INNER CORE BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE, STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL DISRUPT ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND RESULT IN WEAKENING.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H AND
DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRACK AND SIZE FORECASTS, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO OR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 12.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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