223
AXPZ20 KNHC 290340
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 104.9W AT
29/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THU, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN FRI. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THU OR THU NIGHT.NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND
108W. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ONE-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 08N90W TO 09N126W. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N126W TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. ONE-E, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
111W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E.
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
CABO CORRIENTES. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE IMPACTS OF T.D.-ONE-E,
OFFSHORE OAXACA AND CHIAPAS, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO BEYOND 90W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS, LIKELY LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB LOCATED NEAR 30N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF
110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST TO THE EAST RELATED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND
ZONE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W BY FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A
NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, MOVING EASTWARD N OF THE
REGION, WILL BRING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS,
PARTICULARLY N OF 25N AND W OF 125W THIS WEEKEND.
KONARIK
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