121
WTPZ41 KNHC 290837
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 AM MST THU MAY 29 2025
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS REVEALED THAT THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA, WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD
TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, LARGELY BECAUSE OF
THE INITIAL POSITION, AND IT LIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
AIDS.
THE WINDOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN IS GRADUALLY CLOSING. THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME
LATER TODAY, THOUGH THE SYSTEM ONLY HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OF CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 50 KT AND IS AT THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE
ITS ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS POINT AND THE NHC FORECAST NOW
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 60 H. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRACK AND SIZE FORECASTS, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO OR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 13.3N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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