362
WTPZ41 KNHC 291433
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST THU MAY 29 2025
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI SOUTH OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADY AT
2.0/30 KT, THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KT. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN BEGIN TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. BY TOMORROW NIGHT, ALVIN WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD
AS IT IS INFLUENCED MY A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY, WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND SHEAR FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT,
WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW AS THE STORM MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY
HIGHER SHEAR AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE IT
NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER MORA/CANGIALOSI
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