137
AXPZ20 KNHC 291528
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
THE NOW UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N
106.3W AT 29/1500 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN
101W AND 110W. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ALVIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N102W, THEN RESUMES W
OF ALVIN NEAR 11N111W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ALVIN, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W, AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND W OF 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
T.S. ALVIN.
NORTH OF ALVIN, A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE IMPACTS OF ALVIN, OFFSHORE OAXACA AND
CHIAPAS, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND, CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO FRI. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS,
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
T.S. ALVIN.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB LOCATED NEAR 30N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF
110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST TO THE EAST RELATED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND
ZONE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W BY FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A
NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, MOVING EASTWARD N OF THE
REGION, WILL BRING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS,
PARTICULARLY N OF 25N AND W OF 125W THIS WEEKEND.
ERA
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