570
AXPZ20 KNHC 292125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. SEAS
TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALVIN WILL MOVE TO 16.0N 108.0W
FRI MORNING, 17.6N 108.7W FRI AFTERNOON, 19.1N 109.0W SAT
MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 20.5N 109.1W SAT
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.0N 109.2W SUN MORNING,
AND DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ALVIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N101W, THEN RESUMES
W OF ALVIN NEAR 11N111W TO 08N125W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
ALVIN, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM
04N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 10N AND W OF 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
T.S. ALVIN.
NORTH OF ALVIN, A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE IMPACTS OF ALVIN, OFFSHORE OAXACA AND
CHIAPAS, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM ALVIN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND, CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO FRI. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS,
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
T.S. ALVIN.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB LOCATED NEAR 27N13W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF
110W WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST TO THE EAST RELATED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W BY FRI. A NEW AND STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, MOVING EASTWARD N OF THE REGION, WILL
BRING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS, PARTICULARLY N
OF 25N AND W OF 125W THIS WEEKEND.
ERA
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