179
AXPZ20 KNHC 300329
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W AT 30/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
BANDING FEATURES, WITH THE WIDEST ONE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF ALVIN. THESE BANDING
FEATURES CONSIST OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION THAT IS NOTED FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 103W-109W AND
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W-109W. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW
ON SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ALVIN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 17.2N
108.5W FRI MORNING, TO NEAR 18.7N 109.0W FRI EVENING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT, THEN BECOME POST-TROPICAL
NEAR 20.3N 109.3W SAT MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. ALVIN IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 21.9N 109.4W SAT EVENING, REACH NEAR 23.7N 109.3W SUN
MORNING AND DISSIPATE SUN EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ALVIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 12N102W.
IT RESUMES TO THE SW OF ALVIN NEAR 11N111W TO 08N125W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 08N130W TO 07N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W-132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
NORTHWEST OF ALVIN, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH TO
VICINITY OF CABO CORRIENTES. TO THE SE OF THE IMPACTS OF ALVIN,
OFFSHORE OAXACA AND CHIAPAS, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM IMPACTS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE N TO NE WINDS WILL BE
ELSEWHERE OVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO FRI. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS PREVAILING TO THE S OF IT THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS,
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
RELATING TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N134W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N113W. LOWER
PRESSURES ARE TO THE E AND SE OF THE RIDGE RELATED TO TROPICAL
STORM ALVIN. THE PRESENT GRADIENT IN PLACE IS MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS WITHIN THE TRADE WIND ZONE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTH, A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS
TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND
122W BY FRI. A NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT INDUCING FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE ON SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITH THESE
WINDS ON SUN.
AGUIRRE
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