637
WTPZ41 KNHC 300839
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 AM MST FRI MAY 30 2025
ALVIN IS UNRAVELING QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SURFACE WIND DATA
PLACED THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS-UW
ESTIMATES THAT ALVIN HAS ENTERED A REGION OF STRONG SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT, BASED ON THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. ALVIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
AIDS.
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ALVIN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 H. STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM
TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THIS WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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