873
AXPZ20 KNHC 301608
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 108.8W AT 30/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 4 M ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH PEAK SEAS TO
5.5 M. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF ALVIN, AND CONVECTION HAS ERODED
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER, NOTED FROM
17N TO 21N BETWEEN 106W TO 110W. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. ALVIN WILL MOVE TO 18.7N
109.1W THIS EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 20.3N 109.4W
SAT MORNING, 21.8N 109.5W SAT EVENING, 23.5N 109.5W SUN MORNING,
AND DISSIPATE SUN EVENING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ALVIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 12N103W, AND
RESUMES FROM 09N112W TO 08N126W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N126W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 08N EAST OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN, RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO
8 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA DISPLAY SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TO THE SE OF THE IMPACTS OF ALVIN
OFFSHORE, OFFSHORE OAXACA AND CHIAPAS, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM IMPACTS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN S TO SW SWELL
DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING
TO THE S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, PROMOTING
ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR, HIGHEST NEAR THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
RELATING TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N139W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THIS REGION. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 124W. ELSEWHERE,
SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVE GENERATED ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED FROM 10N
TO 15N WEST OF 130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL
IS PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT SOUTH OF 08N, AS OBSERVED
ON RECENT ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ THROUGH SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
WIDESPREAD FRESH SPEEDS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 125W SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, A LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 130W, BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW LONG PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page