869
AXPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 4 M ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
IN THE NE QUADRANT, 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM
IN THE NW QUADRANT. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ALVIN. CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. ALVIN WILL
MOVE TO 19.4N 109.3W SAT MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR
20.8N 109.5W SAT AFTERNOON, 22.4N 109.4W SUN MORNING, AND
DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON. SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ALVIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N128W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 10N EAST OF
93W, AND FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN, RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOW MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TO THE SE OF THE IMPACTS OF ALVIN
OFFSHORE OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM IMPACTS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SUPPORTED
BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH, AS
OBSERVED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH SEAS TO 7 FT OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
PREVAILING TO THE S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR, HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
RELATING TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N139W.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N TO NE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION. SHORT-PERIOD
WIND WAVE GENERATED ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF
130W. FARTHER SOUTH, A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL IS PROMOTING
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT SOUTH OF 09N, AS OBSERVED ON RECENT
ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ THROUGH SAT AS
RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
WIDESPREAD FRESH SPEEDS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 125W SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, A LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 130W, BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW LONG PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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