323
WTPZ41 KNHC 310249
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 PM MST FRI MAY 30 2025
ALVIN IS LOSING STRENGTH DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF STRONG SHEAR AND
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTH OF A DECAYING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40
KT. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND COOL SSTS SHOULD
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY ON SUNDAY.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 9 KT. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. ALVIN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A WEAK REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE TIME IT NEARS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 19.1N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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