537
AXPZ20 KNHC 310944
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 109.3W, OR ABOUT
180 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 31/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTH AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AT 15 FT (4.5 M).
ALVIN CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE REMAINING AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W AND
110W, APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY SHRINKING. THE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CONVECTION IS OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALVIN IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.1N 109.5W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE
TO NEAR 22.3N 109.5W LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ALVIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 12N100W TO
10N110W TO 07N125W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND
CONTINUES TO 06N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 103W-111W, WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-114W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 137W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE WATERS NOT AFFECTED BY ALVIN. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT
IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT IN SE SWELL
S OF CABO SAN LAZARO DUE TO ALVIN.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE ARE PRESENT ACROSS
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION WHERE
GENTLE SE TO S WINDS EXIST. SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF,
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SE TO S SWELL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 12N
TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W AND JUST SOUTHEAST THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM IMPACTS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION HAVE BECOME MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6
FT WITH THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHILE LIGHT GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 4 TO
6 FT IN LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL CONTINUE OVER THE THESE
WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL
OFFSHORE THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N TO 09N AND
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 80W. THIS ACTIVITY PRECEDES A
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHILE MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE S
OF THE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
RESULTING ROUGH SEAS TO ABATE. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ALVIN.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER THAT
IS JUST N OF OF THE AREA NEAR 32N140W CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL
OF THE WIND REGIME PATTERN FOR THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ REGION IS SUPPORTING FRESH N
TO NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 125W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN COMBINED WIND GENERATED WAVES AND LONG-PERIOD
NW TO N SWELL. AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS
CAPTURED THESE SEA VALUES. S TO SW LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 127W.
LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT
SOUTH OF ABOUT 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W DUE TO CROSS-EQUATORIAL
LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS MAY EXPAND SOME EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. THE CURRENT 6 TO
8 FT SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORAIL SWELL THAT IS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING.
AGUIRRE
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