276
AXPZ20 KNHC 312205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N102W TO
06N128W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 11N AND EAST
OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LUCAS, BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS IS THE REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM ALVIN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
EAST OF THE CENTER, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ARE
FOUND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING
SEAS TO 11 FT (AROUND 3.5 M).
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH SUN BEFORE SEAS DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, NEW NW
SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE PACIFIC,
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 90W. A
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR, WITH PEAK SEAS TO 9 TO 10 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH COLOMBIA, PRECEDING A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR THROUGH SUN,
AND WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ON SUN. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE WATERS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 125W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED WEST OF 135W AND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS PROMOTING
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 130W, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 10
FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, IMPACTING AREAS SOUTH OF 17N AND EAST OF
125W THROUGH SUN, BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 125W TODAY. FRESH NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED NORTH OF 20N SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AHEAD,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.
ADAMS/DELGADO
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