661
AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 01 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
AXIS THAT IS ALONG 83W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS
TO NEAR 05N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
11N75W WESTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND TO 10N95W TO
10N100W TO 10N110W AND TO 09N120W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 109W-111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN
AS A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL CONSISTING OF MOSTLY BROKEN LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IT IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE BEING GENERATED BY
THE REMNANT LOW. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM LOS CABOS
REPORTS OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE. OVERNIGHT
ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE MOSTLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT AND MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE LOW, EXCEPT 90
NM IN THE N QUADRANT. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT (2.5 TO 3 M) IN THE
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA
NEAR 30N119W AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS TAPPED INTO
MOISTURE FROM ALVIN, AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND ITS ADJACENT
PACIFIC WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF ALVIN WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY,
HOWEVER, LINGERING SWELL FROM FORMER ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD SW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING. LONG-PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL INDUCE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE IN THE WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THESE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN ECUADOR
WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL, WITH THE
HIGHEST OF THE SEAS TO BE SE THROUGH SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF INCREASING NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 13N89W TO 14N90W. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS JUST OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
REACHES WESTWARD TO NEAR 81W FROM 03N TO 07N.
FOR THE FORECAST, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR THROUGH SUN, AND WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR ON SUN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING REACHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR 20N125W. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT GRADIENT IS DRIVING A SWATH
OF FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NW AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W TO 20N135W AND TO
18N140W. THESE WINDS ARE NICELY DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA PASSES THAT WERE RECEIVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS
ARE TO 8 FT (2.5 M) IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL WITH THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 134W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT
(2.5 M) IN DECAYING N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT (2.5 TO 3 M)
ROUGHLY S OF 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 121W, AND TO 8 FT (2.5 M) S OF
05N BETWEEN 83W AND 92W. SEVERAL OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRESH
N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
STRONG NE WINDS MAY REACH TO NEAR 30N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W
ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT (4 M).
AGUIRRE
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