497
AXPZ20 KNHC 011525
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
AXIS THAT IS ALONG 84W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS
TO NEAR 05N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W TO 11N105W AND TO 09N120W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 09N120W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 03N AND EAST OF 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 02N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 93W
AND 119W AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 08N AND WEST OF 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALVIN ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC
WINDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 113W. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND ALSO NW
SONORA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MAINTAINS MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS, INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
LONG-PERIOD, SOUTHERLY SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-9 FT (2-2.5 M)
IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE NOTED NEAR 14N103W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF ALVIN WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE LOSING ITS IDENTITY,
HOWEVER, LINGERING SWELL FROM FORMER ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD SW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MON BEFORE
SUBSIDING. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL INDUCE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SUDDENLY HIGHER SEAS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW SOUTH
AMERICA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 05N, WHILE
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. A LONG-PERIOD,
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-8 FT (2-2.5 M) ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 3-6 FT (1-2 M) IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR AND WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TODAY.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING REACHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
20N125W. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT GRADIENT IS DRIVING A SWATH OF
FRESH N-NE WINDS OVER THE NW AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO
THE WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W TO 20N135W AND TO 18N140W.
SEAS ARE 6-9 FT (2-2.5 M) IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL WITH THESE
WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 130W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 7
FT (2 M) IN DECAYING N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT (2.5 M) ROUGHLY S OF
23N AND EAST OF 124W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH MON. THE FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE
NW PART OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG NE WINDS MAY REACH TO
NEAR 30N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT
(4 M).
DELGADO
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