519
AXPZ20 KNHC 012140
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2105 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS, ALONG 86W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15
KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N86W TO 10N110W AND TO 07N130W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM
07N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NORTH OF 03N AND EAST OF 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 95W AND
121W AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 08N AND WEST OF 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
TAPPING INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ALVIN, RESULTING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, SONORA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT EXTENDS WEAKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20N TO 27N AND
EAST OF 115W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO, SUPPORTING
SEAS OF 7-10 FT (2-3 M), WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING NEAR
13N103W. THE EXCEPTION ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF ALVIN IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DUE TO LONG-PERIOD SW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY MON
BEFORE SUBSIDING. THEN, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL INDUCE ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE MON INTO TUE, SUBSIDING
MIDWEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT
FORMS, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
OFF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SUDDENLY HIGHER SEAS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 05N, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. A LONG-PERIOD, SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-9 FT (2-3 M) ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 3-6 FT (1-2 M) IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS, PROMOTING
ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR INTO MON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE MON. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT FORMS, THE DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 10 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT GRADIENT IS DRIVING A SWATH OF
FRESH N-NE WINDS OVER THE NW AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO
THE WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N123W TO 20N140W. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT
(2.5-3 M) IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE SEEN WEST OF 120W.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL
IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 10 FT (3 M) ROUGHLY S OF 28N AND EAST OF
130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH MON. THE FRESH N-NE WINDS OVER THE NW
PART OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
DECREASING AFTERWARDS. STRONG NE WINDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
WATERS ON TUE AS A LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE AREA, WHILE SEAS BUILD
TO 14 FT (4 M). SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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