109
AXPZ20 KNHC 020916
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W, EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA, HONDURAS, EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA, INCLUDING REGIONAL WATERS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 10N100W TO 09N120W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W, AND
05N TO 08N W OF 130W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W, AND FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN THESE WINDS. FRESH TO
STRONG W TO NW WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF LOS CABOS. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, A TROUGH, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ALVIN, IS EVIDENT PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 27N110W TO 25N111W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW TO N WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 28N WHILE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE S OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 24N. AN
AREA OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ALSO OBSERVED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE STATE OF SONORA, MEXICO. MAINLY MODERATE NW
WINDS ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND COLIMA WHILE
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO, SUPPORTING SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT (2 TO 3
M) PER LATEST ALTIMETER DATA. THE EXCEPTION ARE SLIGHT SEAS IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO IT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. ROUGH SEAS, IN NW SWELL,
WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA
TODAY. THE SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO
ON TUE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT FORMS,
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 04N,
AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 04N. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
IS PRODUCING MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE AREA, LOCALLY ROUGH BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS. A NEW SET OF LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT FORMS, THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W.
THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SWATH OF FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS, PARTICULARLY
N OF 27N W OF 130W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE (2.5 TO
3 M) IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA, SEAS OF
OF 8 TO 10 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS S
OF 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE
FORECAST REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT, AND WEAKEN SOME BY WED. AS A
RESULT, FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL,
GENERATED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE N WINDS BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE STATE
OF CALIFORNIA, WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT (4M) NEAR 30N130W BY
EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THAT TIME, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 118W.
THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL DECAY TODAY.
GR
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