451
AXPZ20 KNHC 021608
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W, EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PRIMARILY ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 93W,
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND COAST RICA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N76W TO 10N85W TO 08.5N95W TO
09.5N108W TO 08.5N118W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08.5N118W TO
08N121W TO 09N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 15N E OF 98W, FROM 04.5N
TO 14.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 109W, AND FROM 05N TO 11N W OF 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
EXTENDING THROUGH 20N120W TO NEAR 15N110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
PERSISTS OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR ALONG ABOUT 118W. THE RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS YIELDING ONLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE NW WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. HOWEVER, FRESH W
TO NW WINDS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF LOS CABOS. SEAS ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN S SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, A TROUGH LINGERS ALONG 110W TO LOS CABOS, AND WAS
EVIDENT IN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO
W WINDS AREA GENERALLY WEST OF THE THROUGH AND LIGHT TO GENTLE W
TO SW WINDS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS
IS ALSO OBSERVED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO SONORA,
MEXICO. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. N SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TODAY AND
REACH THE BAJA SUR WATERS ON TUE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS REMAINING
ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF
THIS WEEK. ONCE IT FORMS, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG
ABOUT 88W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION WESTWARD
TO TO NEAR 95W. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF 06N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 06N. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PRODUCING MODERATE SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS
THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATING REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH WED BEFORE NEW SW SWELL
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WATERS BY MID-WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT FORMS, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AROUND AT 5 TO
10 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 138W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS N
OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 125W. A DISSIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N121W TO NEAR 25N137W. THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SWATH OF FRESH N TO NE
WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, WHERE SEAS ARE
IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND THIS FEATURE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT TO THE
WEST OF 110W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N105W,
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 240 NM ACROSS
THE W SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON EARLY MORNING ALTIMETER DATA, SEAS OF
OF 8 TO 9 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS S
OF 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE
FORECAST REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT, AND WEAKEN SOME BY WED. AS A
RESULT, FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL,
GENERATED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE N WINDS BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE STATE
OF CALIFORNIA, WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 30N130W BY EARLY
TUE MORNING. AT THAT TIME, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 118W. THE CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL FADE TODAY THROUGH TUE.
STRIPLING
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