180
AXPZ20 KNHC 022120
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W, EXTENDING FROM BELIZE
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS NORTH OF 04N. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD TO 05N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W, INCLUDING
THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N73W TO 09.5N80W TO
11N93W TO 09N119W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N119W TO 08.5N121W
TO 10N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 05.5N BETWEEN 82W AND 96W, FROM 04.5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 108W, FROM 06N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 111W AND
130W, AND FROM 05.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 131W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING THROUGH 21N120W TO NEAR 18N108W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR ALONG ABOUT
118W. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS YIELDING
ONLY LIGHT NW WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. HOWEVER,
MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF LOS
CABOS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ARE 6 TO 7 FT IN S SWELL,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE NEW N SWELL IS RAISING SEAS
TO 7 TO 9 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, A TROUGH LINGERS ALONG
109W TO LOS CABOS, AND WAS EVIDENT IN MIDDAY SCATTEROMETER DATA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OF VARYING DIRECTION GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF, WHILE LIGHT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE ABOUT THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF, WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN S SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG
ABOUT 19N INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THEREAFTER THROUGH
SAT. N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TODAY AND
REACH THE BAJA SUR WATERS ON TUE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT
FORMS, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS ALONG ABOUT 89W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WESTWARD TO 93W. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 06N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
N OF 06N. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PRODUCING MODERATE SEAS OF
5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATING REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE NEW SW
SWELL BUILDS INTO THE AREA WATERS WED THROUGH FRI. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS
OF THIS WEEK. ONCE IT FORMS, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM,
BETWEEN TEHUANTEPEC AND THE PAPAGAYO REGION, THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 138W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS N
OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 125W. A DISSIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 30N121W TO NEAR 24N132W. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS A SWATH OF FRESH N TO NE WINDS
OVER THE NW WATERS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8
TO 10 FT RANGE IN NEW N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND THIS FEATURE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT TO THE WEST OF 110W. A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N105.5W, WHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE W
SEMICIRCLE. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 7 TO 8 FT PREVAIL
ACROSS THIS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 110W. BASED ON
MORNING ALTIMETER DATA, SEAS OF OF 7 TO 8 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SW AND
WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REMAINING WELL N OF
THE FORECAST REGION. AS A RESULT, FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION
THROUGH EARLY FRI, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N. NORTHERLY SWELL, GENERATED BY STRONG
TO GALE FORCE N WINDS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS,
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 30N128W BY EARLY TONIGHT AND PEAKING
THERE AROUND 14 FT TUE EVENING. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 120W BY
TUE NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE FRI.
STRIPLING
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