304
AXPZ20 KNHC 030311
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W, EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS NORTH
OF 04N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA, INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NW COSTA RICA, NICARAGUA,
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
AFFECTING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO 12N90W TO 10N100W TO 09N119W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N119W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N
BETWEEN 85W AND 100W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES INLAND
MEXICO IS YIELDING ONLY LIGHT NW WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W TO NW WINDS PREVAIL IN
THE VICINITY OF LOS CABOS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ARE 5 TO
7 FT IN S SWELL, EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE NEW N
SWELL IS RAISING SEAS TO 7 TO 9 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, A
TROUGH LINGERS ALONG 109W TO LOS CABOS, AND WAS EVIDENT IN LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF WHILE GENTLE SE WINDS ARE
SEEN OVER THE NORTHER PART OF THE GULF. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF, WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN S
SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT, AND REACH THE BAJA SUR WATERS
ON TUE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS REMAINING ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 KT. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS ALONG ABOUT 89W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE
PAPAGAYO REGION NW TO 92W. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 05N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF
05N. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PRODUCING MODERATE SEAS OF 5
TO 8 FT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATING REGIONAL
WATERS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE NEW
SW SWELL BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WED THROUGH FRI. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 43N139W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N118W TO NEAR 22N122W. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS A SWATH OF FRESH N TO NE WINDS
OVER THE NW WATERS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8
TO 10 FT RANGE IN NEW N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND THIS FEATURE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT TO THE WEST OF 110W. A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 13N106W, WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOTED. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 7 TO 8 FT PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SW AND
WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REMAINING WELL N OF
THE FORECAST REGION. AS A RESULT, FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION
THROUGH EARLY FRI, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N. NORTHERLY SWELL, GENERATED BY STRONG
TO GALE FORCE N WINDS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS,
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 30N128W BY TONIGHT AND PEAKING THERE
AROUND 14 FT TUE EVENING. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST
TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 120W BY TUE
NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE FRI.
GR
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