319
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91.5W, EXTENDING FROM
GUATEMALA SOUTHWARD TO 06N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 09N EAST OF 85W, AND FROM
06N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AS A RESULT OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-
PERIOD N TO NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE WATERS, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA, NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE BAJA WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS, IN THE BAYS JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CABO INTO THU
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE
THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
(60%) CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91.5W, EXTENDING FROM
GUATEMALA SOUTHWARD TO 06N. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO
SW WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS
PRODUCING MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS,
AS OBSERVED BY RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. MODERATE SEAS IN CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SWELL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS INTO THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE WINDS
ARE SLATED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N107W, AND A TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, EXTENDING FROM A 1039 MB LOW ANCHORED
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR 42N141W. A LONG-PERIOD N SWELL IS
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. MAINLY MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, THOUGH POCKETS OF
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 125W
AND 140W, AND JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 12N, WEST OF 128W. SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL
PULSE NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 125W THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. A LONG-PERIOD N TO NE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEK, PRODUCING ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF 21N BY THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 18N BY WED
EVENING. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND
137W THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THIS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE S TO
SW SWELL WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS THROUGH WED.
ADAMS
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