783
AXPZ20 KNHC 032147
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W, EXTENDING FROM THE
GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO 05N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 91W AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 12N107W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N130W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
05N TO 11N EAST OF 86W, AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND
131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA, WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OCCURRING NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AS A RESULT
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ELSEWHERE, A
LONG-PERIOD N TO NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT NORTH
OF 25N. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE BAJA WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS, IN THE BAYS JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CABO INTO THU
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE
THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH (70%)
CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W, EXTENDING FROM THE
GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO 05N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PRODUCING MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS, AS OBSERVED BY RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. MODERATE
SEAS IN CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE SLATED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO BY LATE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N107W, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING
EXTENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, EXTENDING FROM A 1040
MB LOW ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR 43N141W. RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF 22N,
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER 12 FT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 124W AND
135W. MAINLY MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, THOUGH POCKETS OF LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING WEST OF 130W AS SEEN ON SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND
JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 16N, WEST OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL
PULSE NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 125W THROUGH THU AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
TROUGHING OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A LONG-PERIOD N TO NE
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEK,
PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 21N THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 17N
BY WED EVENING. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
124W AND 137W THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THIS
REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO
NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, A SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE S TO SW SWELL WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THROUGH WED.
ADAMS
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