767
AXPZ20 KNHC 040308
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W, EXTENDING FROM SE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO 06N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO 09N93W TO 08N110W TO
09N135W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB LOCATED WELL N OF AREA EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, REACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES INLAND MEXICO SUPPORTS
LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS N OF PUNTA CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS S OF CABO SAN LAZARO. HOWEVER, MAINLY FRESH
NW WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE NEW N SWELL IS RAISING
SEAS TO 7 TO 9 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT SW TO W WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL AREA OBSERVED NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
MODERATE W TO NW WINDS ARE PARALLEL TO THE COAST BETWEEN JALISCO
AND MICHOACAN WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. PULSING WINDS TO 20 KT
ARE EXPECTED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS NIGHTLY THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE
THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 06N, AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS N OF 06N. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PRODUCING
MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. MODERATE
SEAS IN CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH
E TO NE WINDS ARE SLATED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
LATE WEEK. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N142W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W. THIS SYSTEM IS
GENERATING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE
NW WATERS. ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF
23N W OF 118W, WITH SEAS PEAKING 13 FT BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND THIS FEATURE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6
TO 7 FT TO THE WEST OF 120W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED
NEAR 11N107. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SW AND
WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REMAINING WELL N OF
THE FORECAST REGION. AS A RESULT, FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION
THROUGH EARLY FRI, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N. NORTHERLY SWELL, GENERATED BY
STRONG TO GALE FORCE N WINDS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
FRI. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE WATERS N OF 23N AND W OF 120W BY TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH LATE FRI.
GR
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