010
WTPZ42 KNHC 080840
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
300 AM CST SUN JUN 08 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. A SMALL, PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGES TONIGHT, AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONFIRM THIS HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED, CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE NHC IS STARTING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT BASED ON
THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER WINDS.
BARBARA IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A MOIST AND RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS. SO, STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THIS COULD OCCUR QUICKLY GIVEN RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST SHOWS BARBARA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 24 H, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY HAFS-A/B AND THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA). THE
WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS BRIEF, AS BARBARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BY 48 H.
THIS SHOULD DISRUPT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AND RESULT
IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5, THE REMNANT LOW OF BARBARA IS FORECAST TO
EITHER DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION OF EP91.
BARBARA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (295/10 KT) ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY
LIES NEAR OR BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS. GIVEN
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. BY
TUESDAY, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN BARBARA AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE (EP91) WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE SUBJECT TO LARGER FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF EP91.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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