785
WTPZ43 KNHC 081434
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
800 AM MST SUN JUN 08 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAVE SHOWN
CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. WELL-ORGANIZED CURVED BANDS
HAVE BEEN PRESENT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CAME IN AT 1.5/25 KT AND
2.0/30 KT, RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT SATELLITE-DERIVED
WIND DATA SHOWED 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. GIVEN THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND DATA
SUGGESTING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAS NOW FORMED WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS SET AT 310/07
KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN MOTION MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE
TO THE EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM BARBARA. THIS
INTERACTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
MORE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27 TO 28C AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING,
AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH
COOLER WATER BELOW 26C, AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE INTERACTION
WITH BARBARA SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER RAPID WEAKENING, WITH THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
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