578
WTPZ42 KNHC 081514
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
900 AM CST SUN JUN 08 2025
BARBARA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BURSTING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. EARLIER AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CURVED BANDING WITH AN INNER CORE
IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE. THIS STRUCTURE HAS LED TO AN IMPROVED
SATELLITE DEPICTION AND INTENSIFICATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, USING A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THIS COULD
OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE OF BARBARA. THE
LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FORM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS BARBARA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 12 HRS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY AIDS THAT ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE NHC FORECAST, INCLUDING SOME EXPLICITLY FORECASTING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). RI IS POSSIBLE, AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE SUCCEEDING FORECASTS. AFTER 24-36 HRS, THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODEL INFRARED
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTS THE SYSTEM LOSING CONVECTION BY
72 H. BY DAY 4, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW, AND
DISSIPATE BY DAY 5 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TD
THREE-E.
BARBARA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (295/10 KT) ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS. GIVEN THE
FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY, THE
TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN BARBARA AND TD THREE-E. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE SUBJECT TO LARGE FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF TD THREE-E.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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