248
WTPZ43 KNHC 082030
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 PM MST SUN JUN 08 2025
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN CURVED
BANDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. AN ASCAT-C PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED PEAK
WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE DEPRESSION
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM COSME WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY SET AT 40 KT.
COSME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR, ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, AND OVER WARM SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A
PEAK OF 60 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS, AND IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF
COSME BECOMES A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY MID-WEEK,
HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. COSME IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3
DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN 4 DAYS.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT, AND THAT GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME, THE INTERACTION WITH BARBARA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INITIAL
SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS INTERACTION.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION/POSITION AND TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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