267
WTPZ42 KNHC 082032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
300 PM CST SUN JUN 08 2025
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST OVER THE CENTER OF BARBARA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -75 C. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE LOOKS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY DISRUPTED THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-55 KT THIS CYCLE. USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE
ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST IMAGERY THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
BARBARA IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 24 H, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THESE
FACTORS WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY STRUGGLE TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION. LATEST MODEL IR SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING CONVECTION BY 72 H. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
IT WILL BECOME A A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME AND
LIKELY DISSIPATE BY DAY 5 ALTHOUGH THAT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
BARBARA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 295/10, STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY
RIGHTWARD AND LIES JUST LEFT OF THE THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AIDS. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII,
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
MORE COMPLICATED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN BARBARA AND
COSME. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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