110
WTPZ42 KNHC 090235
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
900 PM CST SUN JUN 08 2025
AFTER A MARKED DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION A FEW HOURS AGO,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
STORM, WITH A COMMA-SHAPED PATTERN EVOLVING. A RECENT GPM
MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, AND THIS IS USED FOR
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON BOTH
GEOSTATIONARY AND LIMITED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES, THE OVERALL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 300/9 KT.
THOUGH SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF BARBARA TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD TURN
DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. IN FACT THE GFS MODEL, WHICH APPEARS
TO HAVE THE MOST REALISTIC AND ABOUT THE STRONGEST INITIALIZATION
FOR THE SYSTEM, IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. BY
72-96 HOURS, BARBARA SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BARBARA IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE
VERY SOON, AND THE NHC PREDICTION IS ABOVE ALMOST ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE. IN A DAY OR SO, COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON BARBARA WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 60-72 HOURS, AND
THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 16.5N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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