232
WTPZ42 KNHC 090846
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
200 AM MST MON JUN 09 2025
BARBARA HAS BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN INCREASING AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS IN THE -75C TO -85C RANGE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 55-65 KT, AND THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 46-68 KT.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED BANDING AND COLD CLOUD TOPS, AS WELL AS THE
PERSISTENCE OF THIS ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION SINCE THERE HAVE
BEEN NO RECENT AVAILABLE MICROWAVE PASSES, BUT THE BEST MOTION
ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARBARA,
WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BARBARA ON A GENERAL PATH TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST LEFT MODEL. THE GFS APPEARS TO
HAVE A MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, AND WAS
STRONGER AT THE INITIALIZATION TIME. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE
SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS.
BARBARA ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT STARTS
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR BARBARA
TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE
MODELS AND GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW BARBARA WEAKENING BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS, AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS
CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING AND QUICKER DISSIPATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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