231
WTPZ43 KNHC 090846
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 AM MST MON JUN 09 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF COSME HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
HOLDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A TIMELY 09/0524Z ASCAT PASS
HELPED WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND 34 KT WIND RADII ESTIMATES,
WITH SEVERAL WIND BARBS SHOWING 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45
KNOTS AND T2.5/35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE, THE OBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE, IN LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.
COSME IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED. TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY BARBARA IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF COSME, RESULTING IN A FURTHER SLOWING IN MOTION AND A SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A MOTION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH COSME FORECAST TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OF COSME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIGHTEN UP SOME WHILE THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER 27/28C WATER
WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BRINGING COSME CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. BEYOND 24 HOURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF COSME. A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER, WITH COSME EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN
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