837
WTPZ42 KNHC 091437
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
800 AM MST MON JUN 09 2025
BARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR2
MICROWAVE PASS, WHICH SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TUCKED UNDER A
LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT A PARTIAL EYEWALL HAS FORMED, ALTHOUGH IT WAS OPEN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS
T4.0/65 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY AIDS FROM UW-CIMSS
RANGE FROM 55-65 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS MAKES
BARBARA THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON.
THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AT 310/9 KT.
BARBARA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER
MEXICO AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON OPPOSITE SIDES
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN BARBARA WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT,
CLOSER TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
BARBARA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AS IT ONLY HAS ABOUT 6-12
MORE HOURS OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY WEAKEN AND LOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE STORM IS NOW
FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 H, AND DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH BY 60 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
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